Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

873
FXUS63 KLBF 180431
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1031 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northerly winds continue through midnight across
  western and north central Nebraska, with peak gusts of 45 mph.

- Light snow showers, with accumulations generally less than
  one inch, across the Panhandle Friday and Saturday night.

- A Cold Weather Advisory goes in effect Saturday evening
  through Tuesday morning due to frigid temperatures and
  dangerously cold wind chills

- Widespread wind chills of 20 degrees below zero or colder each
  morning from Sunday through Tuesday. Some areas across north
  central Nebraska and the Sandhills could see wind chills of 30
  degrees below zero or colder, especially on Monday morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

An upper level trough continues to deepen across Montana and Wyoming
this afternoon, setting the stage for this weekend`s frigid
temperatures. At the surface, a cold front has pushed through
southern Nebraska, with a second cold front tracking across southern
South Dakota. Skies are mostly overcast, and light echoes are
observed on radar. With the radar echoes, snow is making it to the
surface across portions of northwest Nebraska, but otherwise
remains light flurries across north central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

The initial cold front continues to track south, already through
southern Nebraska and moving into Kansas. This front has gradually
dropped afternoon temperatures across western Nebraska, and as of
time of this discussion, temperatures have already dropped 9 degrees
at North Platte airport behind the initial cold front. Winds
associated with the front continue to remain quite gusty, and are
expected to remain so through midnight. After midnight, the winds
will diminish a bit, with steady northerly winds of 15 to 20 miles
per hour gusting around 25 to 30 miles per hour through Saturday
morning. A second cold front across southern South Dakota will usher
in this weekend`s bitterly cold conditions, starting later this
evening.

Along with the secondary cold front, chances of snow showers persist
in the Panhandle tonight and Saturday night. In general,
accumulations are expected to remain west of Highway 61 and remain
less than 1 inch. Some portions of northwest Nebraska, mainly
western Sheridan County, may experience some locally higher amounts,
but generally only around 1.5 inches. The main reasoning behind
these localized higher amounts is areas of enhanced convergence
south of the Black Hills, which may help snow last a bit longer than
model guidance currently suggests. Additionally, localized
enhancements in surface based instability and favorable lapse rates
across the Panhandle may lead to brief snow squall conditions in
northwest Nebraska, temporarily reducing visibility due to brief,
heavy snow showers.

For Saturday, the area remains mostly overcast behind the secondary
cold front, with winds remaining steady out of the north, around 15
to 20 miles per hour. Highs climb into the teens north of Interstate
80, with areas south of Interstate 80 just breaking into the lower
20s. However, the steady winds will introduce wind chills in the low
single digits across southwest Nebraska and below zero for the rest
of the region Saturday afternoon. Another glancing shot of snow is
possible (20-30 percent chance) across the Pine Ridge Saturday
night, but any new accumulations should remain light.

Saturday night, the cloud cover is expected to break, bringing
partly cloudy skies across the region. Winds also continue to
diminish to around 10 miles per hour across the Sandhills, which
sets up strong conditions for radiational cooling on top of the
introduction of cold air from the Northern Plains. Overnight lows
range from temperatures just below zero across southwest Nebraska to
15 below zero across portions of northwest Nebraska. Widespread wind
chills of 15 to 25 degrees below zero are expected, especially along
and north of Interstate 80. South of Interstate 80, wind chills of
10 to 15 below zero are expected, but a subtle change in low
temperatures or a slightly stronger wind could quickly drop those
wind chills to 20 below zero. A few locations north of Highway 20 in
north central Nebraska may even see wind chills as low as 30 below
zero. In short, the bitter cold finally arrives. As such, a Cold
Weather Advisory has been issued effective Saturday night through
Tuesday morning across all of western and north central
Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

The bitter cold remains on Sunday, with highs in the teens. Again,
winds will keep things feeling quite cooler than the actual air
temperatures, with wind chills hovering around zero throughout the
day. Sunday night into Monday morning is expected to be the coldest
period of the cold snap, with overnight lows below zero expected for
the entire region. The wind chills will be dangerously cold, with
increasing confidence in seeing fairly widespread areas across the
northern Sandhills seeing wind chills of 30 degrees below zero or
colder. Will be keeping a very close eye on the trends over the next
few forecasts to see if an Extreme Cold Warning may be needed for
Sunday night into Monday morning. It should be mentioned, this is
not the "typical" January cold. These are the type of conditions
where frostbite and hypothermia can quickly set in, and they should
not be taken lightly. If you must be outside or traveling, make sure
you are dressing appropriately and have taken safety precautions for
the extreme cold.

Temperatures remain cold through Monday afternoon, with highs in the
single digits north of Highway 2, and low teens south of Highway 2.
Latest guidance does suggest that even these cold temperatures may
be a bit too warm in the extended forecast, so these highs could
continue to decrease in the upcoming days. Wind chills remain bitter
on Monday afternoon, with wind chills ranging from 5 degrees below
zero in southwest Nebraska to 20 degrees below zero across north
central Nebraska. A final blast of cold temperatures is expected
Monday night into Tuesday morning, with overnight lows around 5 to
15 below zero. For now, wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero are
expected across all of western and north central Nebraska. However,
much like Monday afternoon, the temperature forecast for Monday
night also trended cooler on this last cycle, so there is a
potential that even colder conditions could exists Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Will continue to monitor these trends to determine
whether an Extreme Cold Warning may be needed Monday night into
Tuesday morning as well.

By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures begin to moderate across the
region, with highs reaching into the 20s and 30s. While this is
warmer compared to the weekend, it is still colder than
climatological averages. The forecast remains mostly dry through the
end of the week, with highs in the 30s. Will be keeping an eye on a
possible warming trend by late week, which may bring some potential
for temperatures in the low 40s, but there is still a fair amount of
variability this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Skies will remain cloudy at both terminals over the next
24 hours with some limited clearing possible at the KLBF terminal
Saturday evening. Ceilings at the KLBF terminal will range from 2500
to 3500 FT AGL through Saturday afternoon, increasing to 6000 to
7000 FT AGL thereafter. AT the KVTN terminal: Expect broken
ceilings ranging from 2500 to 3500 FT AGL over the next 24
hours. Winds will remain gusty tonight with gusts up to 25 KTS
possible. Winds will diminish somewhat Saturday morning, then
increase once again Saturday afternoon. Gusts up to 25 KTS are
possible at the KVTN terminal during the late afternoon hours
Saturday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Saturday to
noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-
056>059-069>071-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Buttler